Trump’s Repeal of China’s AI Chip Ban Could Significantly Benefit DeepSeek

Over the last few weeks, the Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has attracted significant attention in the tech world. Impressively, DeepSeek’s model has outperformed OpenAI’s o1 reasoning model in fields like math, science, and coding, all while incurring just a fraction of the development costs. To put it in perspective, the R1 V3 model by DeepSeek was developed with a budget of $6 million using reinforcement learning, which is merely 3% of what ChatGPT’s creator invested in their flagship model.

In light of this achievement, DeepSeek has surged in popularity, dethroning ChatGPT as the most downloaded AI app for free in the U.S. as per Apple’s App Store rankings. Despite this, Helen Toner, a former board member of OpenAI, sees this as just the beginning for DeepSeek. She believes the startup could reach even greater heights if the AI chip export restrictions, imposed by Biden’s administration in 2023, are lifted. These rules currently prevent advanced chips from being shipped to China.

Toner suggested that removing such restrictions could be a considerable win for both China and DeepSeek. In a conversation with Fortune, she shared her thoughts, imagining that Nvidia might try to convince President Trump that these controls are stifling U.S. industry, encouraging him to repeal them.

Her remarks come amid allegations that DeepSeek may have used data from Microsoft and OpenAI without permission, potentially stepping into copyright infringement territory. Interestingly, Microsoft and OpenAI are no strangers to copyright lawsuits. OpenAI’s CEO, Sam Altman, has argued that current copyright laws don’t explicitly forbid using protected content for AI model training. He acknowledged that developing systems akin to ChatGPT requires access to extensive, privileged data.

There’s much debate over the direction the Trump administration might take regarding these regulations left by Biden. The pressing issue, according to Toner, is whether Trump will either maintain or shift from the previous administration’s policies.

Toner also commented, stressing the strategic significance of AI chips globally, “It doesn’t make any sense to try to reverse course now. We’ve already invested heavily… By doing so, we highlighted the critical nature of these chips to China, driving the entire global supply chain to reconsider using U.S. components.”

Just before leaving office, Biden declared new measures aimed at tightening these export rules further. These measures blocked China from bypassing NVIDIA by using shell companies linked to Huawei and prevented TSMC from manufacturing the chips. With rapid AI advancements, it’s uncertain how Trump will approach this evolving landscape. There’s potential for him to introduce a different perspective or perhaps ease the restrictions.

Despite the lack of transparency in DeepSeek’s R1 development, it’ll be fascinating to watch how it competes against top-tier AI models. This competition comes as OpenAI places a staggering $500 billion bet on Stargate, aiming to build data centers across the U.S. as part of its AI advancement strategy.

“So far, DeepSeek is more of a fast follower rather than a leader,” Toner remarked. “China is making great strides in matching U.S. AI developments. They’re quick to follow, but it’s incorrect to claim they’ve overtaken us.”